Why Arizona basketball can reach Final Four in our 2024 March Madness bracket predictions (2024)

Let the March Madness begin for Arizona basketball in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

The Wildcats (25-8) will face Long Beach State (21-14) Thursday at 11 a.m. in the first round.

It's a highly anticipated postseason for UA coach Tommy Lloyd, who has proven himself a winner with an 87-19 record in three seasons and one Sweet 16 appearance.

Yes, Arizona was upset by No. 15 seed Princeton last season. But an NCAA Tournament breakthrough seems likely for Lloyd, 49, at some point. He has quickly found success as a coach after branching out from Gonzaga coach Mark Few's coaching tree.

Lloyd already owns the NCAA record for most wins in his first two seasons as a coach (61) and his 87 wins are the most by a major conference coach in his first three seasons in NCAA history.

FOLLOW THE MADNESS: NCAA tournament brackets, scores, schedules, teams and more.

Arizona hasn't reached the Final Four since 2001. Does the streak end this year? Let's dive in.

More:Arizona basketball tickets in 2024 NCAA Tournament: Prices, how to buy

Why Arizona can reach the Final Four

Elite offense can overcome March Madness upsets

DraftKings gives Arizona the best odds (+180) to win the West Region in the NCAA Tournament.

And why not?

It never hurts to have a star-studded offense going into March Madness, and the Wildcats have that in Pac-12 player of the year Caleb Love, who is followed by three teammates averaging double figures.

Arizona is the third-highest scoring team in NCAA Division I with 87.8 points per game.

More:Jay Wright's March Madness prediction? Arizona basketball to 2024 Final Four in Glendale

The Wildcats' 121.1 adjusted offensive efficiency is ranked No. 8 nationally by KenPom.com. That metric estimates of a team's offensive efficiency, or how many points it could score in 100 possessions against the average Division I defense.

The Wildcats aren't deep, but a good starting five is capable of winning a national championship. Love's scoring is supplemented by Oumar Ballo (13.1 ppg), Pelle Larsson (12.8 ppg) and Keshad Johnson (11.6 ppg).

Arizona's size will help in NCAA Tournament

The Wildcats' top scorers average 6-foot-5 in height, which has led to a 42.6 to 32.1 rebounding advantage in 33 games. That ranks No. 3 nationally entering March Madness.

Ballo, a 7-foot, 260-pound senior, is having the best rebounding season of his career with 10.1 per game. Johnson, a 6-7 forward, averages 5.7 rebounds.

Size and defense don't fade when shooters go cold.

IT'S BRACKET MADNESS:Enter USA TODAY's basketball tournament bracket contests for a chance at $1 million prize.

Why Arizona can't reach the Final Four

Wildcats aren't playing best entering NCAA Tournament

Trends matter going into March Madness, and Arizona hasn't been in peak form having lost two of its last three games.

The Wildcats shot 5-of-19 from 3-point range (29%) while blowing a 14-point lead in a Pac-12 tournament semifinal loss to Oregon, which is a No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Love has had a great season, but he's just averaged six points during Arizona's slump. Some of that is attributed to Arizona's balance — five players scored in double-figures during the Wildcats' 70-49 win over USC to end the regular season — but a Final Four run will require Love to be his best.

Baylor-Arizona Sweet 16 matchup looms in March Madness bracket

CBS' Jay Wright and Seth Davis believe the West Region matchups are good for Arizona, but a meeting in the Sweet 16 with No. 3 Baylor would still be a challenge.

Baylor has six players averaging double figures, led by Ja'Kobe Walter (14.1 ppg), and can play big lineups to match Arizona's size. Coach Scott Drew, who led the program to the 2021 national title, knows what to do with this kind of roster.

More:March Madness bracket 2024: NCAA Tournament first round schedule

The Bears (23-10) finished third in the regular-season Big 12 standings. The conference was considered by some as the nation's toughest this season. Baylor stumbled in a 76-62 loss to Iowa State in the conference title game but still has 10 Quadrant 1 wins this season, which ranks fourth nationally.

The Bears took top-ranked Houston, a possible favorite to win the national title, to overtime in an 82-76 overtime loss earlier this season.

March Madness Final Four prediction for Arizona

The Wildcats will make the Final Four in Glendale and get a huge reception from their local fans.

Arizona is one of the nation's most balanced teams on offense and defense. Love will shake off his slump, and the Wildcats will defeat North Carolina in a memorable regional final for the program's first Final Four berth in 23 years.

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Why Arizona basketball can reach Final Four in our 2024 March Madness bracket predictions (2024)
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