Weldon B. Johnson
Depending on your point of view, Phoenix residents either enjoyed or endured one of the hottest years on record in 2016.
With an average temperature (taking the daily high and low temperatures and dividing by two) of 76.7 degrees, 2016 tied 2015 for third warmest year for the city.
Regardless of how you feel about the heat, you may as well try to get used to it. If the trends over recent years are any indication, it’s not going awayany time soon.
A lookat the National Weather Service in Phoenix’s annual wrap-ups shows that four of the five warmest years on record have occurred since 2012. The year 2014 was warmest at 77.1 degrees, followed by 1989 (76.9), 2016, 2015 and 2012 (76.7).
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Mark O’Malley, the meteorologist who compiled this year’s report, said the trend goes back even farther.
“Essentially the climate is warming and there are no signs this trend is going to stop,” O’Malley said. “If you look further down the list, eight of the warmest 10 years have been since 2000. And if you go back even further, the warmest years over the past 20 are packed toward the top.”
O’Malley said urbanization – the so-called urban heat-island effect – in the Phoenix area and increasing amounts of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are the main reasons behind the warming trend.
“The Southwest is particularly vulnerable to that type of warming,” O’Malley said. “It’s a double whammy for Phoenix. It seems every year we’re setting a new record.”
A look at the numbers
The average high for Phoenix last year was 88.5 degrees, which was 1.9 degrees above normal.That average was fourth warmest since records were first kept in 1896.
The average overnight low was 65 degrees, which was 1.6 degrees above normal.That average was third warmest.
Phoenix saw 19 days with record high temperatures in 2016. The hottest day of the year was June 19 when the temperature reached 118 degrees. There were 16 days with record warm overnight lowtemperatures last year.
The higher overnight temperatures can be linked to the urban heat-island effect. The concentrations of concrete and asphalt in urban areas hold on to heat more than undeveloped land, which results in higher overnight temperatures.
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The year was also drier than normal. Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (the city’s official reporting station) saw 6.19 inches of rain in 2016. That’s 1.84 inches below normal.
One statistic O’Malley found particularly interesting had to do with the number of 100- and 110-degree days. There were 99 days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees, which was 10 below average. On 30 of those days the temperature reached at least 110 degrees, which was 12 more than average and three short of the record for that statistic.
“When we hit 100, we were really, really warm,” O’Malley said. “If you do the math, 30 percent of the time we hit 100, we went up to 110.”
Phoenix wasn't alone
Phoenix wasn’t the only hot spot in Arizona. Afew cities had even more historically significant years.
Yuma had its all-time warmest year with an average of 77.2 degrees. The National Weather Service office in Tucson reported an average of 72.1 degrees, which tied 2014 for the record in that city.
The Weather Service’s Flagstaff office (which covers northern Arizona) reported a record warm year at the Window Rock Airport (50.8 degrees) and a tie for the second warmest year in Prescott (58 degrees).
Numbers released by the National Weather Service offices don’t become official until they have been certified by the National Centers for Environmental Information. That organization also releases the official state and national numbers and is expected to do so this month.
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O’Malley said he expects the national and global numbers to be similar to the trends that have been showing up in Phoenix.
Globally, the two warmest years on record are 2015 and 2014 and the 15 warmest years have occurred since 1998.
“For the nation it’s going to be the hottest year or second hottest year on record,” O’Malley said. “For the globe it’s almost assured it will be the hottest yearon record. There is no sign that’s going to stop any time soon. It’s what we’re doing to our environment.”
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